BN(O) Safe, Refugees Not: Why Nathan Law Fears UK’s New Settlement Rules

The UK is rewriting the rules of who gets to stay permanently – and on what terms.

In November 2025, the government launched its “earned settlement” overhaul, proposing to:

• Make 10 years the new standard qualifying period for settlement (Indefinite Leave to Remain, ILR)
• Push most refugees to 20 years before they can settle
• Make those who arrived illegally wait up to 30 years for permanent status

At the same time, the UK continues to run its special British National (Overseas) – BN(O) visa route for Hongkongers, which promises ILR after 5 years to those who hold or are connected to BN(O) status.

Into this picture steps Nathan Law – one of the most recognised faces of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement – warning that the UK could be “betraying” Hong Kong refugees who don’t qualify under the BN(O) route and are instead relying on the asylum system.

This blog unpacks:

• What exactly the UK is changing
• Who is protected (BN(O) holders) and who risks being left out (non-BN(O) Hongkongers)
• Why Nathan Law is worried
• What future scenarios look like
• How Hong Kong refugees and their supporters should plan

All using official documents, parliamentary debates and trusted reporting – explained in normal language.

1. Who is Nathan Law – and why does his opinion matter?

Nathan Law is a former Hong Kong lawmaker and one of the most prominent leaders of the city’s pro-democracy movement:

• Rose to prominence during the 2014 Umbrella Movement
• Co-founded the political party Demosistō with Joshua Wong and Agnes Chow
• Was elected to Hong Kong’s legislature, then disqualified under Beijing-backed rules
• Fled amid the 2019–2020 crackdown and applied for asylum in the UK in 2021

Hong Kong authorities have since:

• Issued a HK$1 million bounty (about £100,000) for information leading to his arrest
• Charged people accused of spying on him and other exiled activists in the UK

So when Law says he feels “in limbo” in Britain and fears the new rules could prolong that uncertainty for many Hongkongers, it resonates deeply with others in similar positions.

2. What is the UK changing? The new “earned settlement” model

2.1 The 10-year standard for settlement

In November 2025 the UK launched a consultation called “A Fairer Pathway to Settlement”. The core idea is to replace today’s mix of 5-year routes with a single baseline:

• Standard qualifying period for settlement → 10 years
• Time can be shortened or lengthened depending on contribution, behaviour and route

Under this model, applicants are judged against four “pillars”:

1. Character – criminality, national security, immigration compliance
2. Integration – English language and Life in the UK test
3. Contribution – work, tax, National Insurance contributions, limited benefits usage
4. Residence – lawful stay, time in the UK, continuity

For many economic migrants, the 10-year wait is the new default, with possible fast-track options (e.g. high earners, Global Talent) and slow-track routes (e.g. long-term benefit users, some humanitarian cases).

2.2 Refugees and asylum: from 5 years → 20 years

At the same time, the Home Office has set out a new approach to refugees and asylum:

• Refugee status grants will last 2.5 years at a time (not 5) and be temporary
• Renewal only if it remains unsafe to return
• Permanent settlement (ILR) not at 5 years, but at 20 years for most refugees on “core protection”

There will be a new “work and study” visa for refugees:

• Those who successfully move onto that route could get settlement earlier (e.g. at 10 years), but still on a longer timetable than now.

2.3 Tougher for irregular arrivals

For people who arrive illegally (e.g. by small boat), the government wants settlement to be possible only after:

• Up to 30 years in some cases, with significant restrictions along the way

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has said these changes will make Britain’s settlement system “by far the most controlled and selective in Europe.”

3. Where does the Hong Kong BN(O) route fit into this?

When China imposed the National Security Law on Hong Kong in 2020, the UK responded by creating the Hong Kong BN(O) visa route.

Key points from official guidance:

• Open to people from Hong Kong with British National (Overseas) (BN(O)) status and certain household members
• Allows them and their families to live, work and study in the UK
• After 5 years in the UK on eligible visas (including BN(O)), they can apply for:
  • Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR)
  • After another year, British citizenship (if they meet requirements)

The earned settlement consultation explicitly says:

• Partners of British citizens and people on the Hong Kong BN(O) route are expected to keep a 5-year settlement period, not move to 10 years.
• BUT they will likely need to meet new “minimum mandatory requirements”, including at least B2 English and earnings at or above the £12,570 income benchmark.

So BN(O) route users are comparatively protected. They keep:

• A clear 5-year path to settlement
• A dedicated, bespoke route recognising the UK’s historic responsibilities to Hong Kong

Where, then, is the problem?

4. The gap Nathan Law is worried about: non-BN(O) Hong Kong refugees

Nathan Law’s core point is simple:

The UK’s moral obligation to Hongkongers isn’t limited to those with BN(O) status.

Many of the people most exposed in the crackdown:

• Are younger activists who were too young to register for BN(O) status before 1997
• Were born on the mainland or moved to Hong Kong later (like Law himself), so never had BN(O) rights
• Left the territory in a hurry, under threat of arrest or prosecution, and had to seek asylum rather than come through the BN(O) route

Under current proposals, that group faces:

• Temporary refugee protection in 2.5-year chunks
• The prospect of 20 years before they can secure ILR, unless they manage to move into a work/study route
• A more hostile political narrative around asylum and irregular migration generally

For people fleeing a lifetime of state persecution, a 20-year wait for secure status is not just a number. It means:

• Two decades of anxiety over whether rules will change
• Worry about travel and safety, especially if foreign security services target them abroad
• Difficulty planning careers, families, long-term housing and mental health support

Law has said that if the waiting period changes, it will “prolong the uncertainty” in his life and for others, at a time when Hong Kong and mainland authorities are still actively surveilling, harassing and putting bounties on exiled activists.

5. The UK Government’s position: commitment, but ambiguity

The Home Office line has two parts.

1. On BN(O) Hongkongers:
   • Ministers repeatedly say the UK remains “unwavering” in its support for BN(O) families and that the special route will continue to offer a 5-year path to settlement.
2. On asylum and protection:
   • Recent speeches stress that no one found to be at risk of persecution or serious harm will be forced to return to Hong Kong.

However, several uncertainties remain:

• Will the 20-year settlement rule for refugees apply to people already in the UK, or only to new arrivals? Parliamentarians themselves say this is still being debated.
• Will there be exemptions or shorter routes for Hong Kong refugees who are not BN(O)s but whose persecution is directly linked to the National Security Law and UK–Hong Kong history?
• How will the new rules interact with future UK–China relations, including possible pressure or retaliatory measures?

This is why Law describes Hong Kong refugees without BN(O) as being in limbo: the UK says it will not send them back, but is also preparing to make their path to security much longer and more conditional.

6. Why the UK is tightening settlement rules – and what benefits it seeks

To understand the tension, you need to see the government’s broader logic.

6.1 The official reasons for reform

From official documents and parliamentary debates, the main aims are:

• Control and selectivity
  • Move away from “automatic” settlement to a system where ILR is earned by contribution and behaviour.
• Economic contribution
  • Prioritise migrants who work, pay tax, integrate and are not reliant on benefits.
• Reducing overall migration pressure
  • Cut net migration, ease pressure on housing, schools, the NHS and local services.
• Deterrence of irregular migration
  • Make it less attractive for people to arrive via unsafe or illegal routes, by limiting and slowing settlement.

Within that framework, BN(O) Hongkongers are seen as a success story:

• More than 160,000+ BN(O) status holders and their families have moved to the UK since 2021
• A thinktank (CSRI) estimates that giving them ILR after 5 years could generate over £4 billion for the UK Treasury by 2029, largely through pension transfers and long-term tax contributions.
• Community groups highlight strong integration: BN(O) arrivals serving as school governors, local councillors, volunteers, and building businesses.

For them, the government can argue:

“We honoured our obligation, we created a bespoke route, they are contributing, and we are keeping their 5-year settlement.”

The problem, as Nathan Law points out, is the gap between that group and non-BN(O) Hong Kong refugees who are no less politically targeted, but structurally pushed into a much harsher asylum system.

7. Impact on Hong Kong refugees: risks and consequences

7.1 Prolonged insecurity

For non-BN(O) Hongkongers who fled persecution and are on asylum routes:

• A 20-year path to ILR means a generation of uncertainty
• Frequent renewals of temporary status create constant fear of policy change
• Difficulties in long-term planning: buying a home, building a business, fully investing in UK life

For those being actively targeted by Chinese or Hong Kong authorities (surveillance, threats, bounties), a secure status and British passport are not a luxury – they are a safety measure.

7.2 Two-tier treatment within one exile community

Even within the Hong Kong diaspora, you risk creating:

• A relatively secure BN(O) group on a 5-year track
• A more precarious asylum group on a 20-year track

Yet both groups often:

• Attended the same protests
• Face similar charges under the National Security Law
• Share the same reasons for not being able to return

That divide is at the heart of the “betrayal” concern.

7.3 Reputational stakes for the UK

The UK has framed the BN(O) scheme as part of its historic and moral responsibility as a former colonial power, and as a response to Beijing’s breach of the Sino-British Joint Declaration.

If it now:

• Keeps fast settlement for BN(O)s
• But pushes other Hong Kong refugees into a 20-year asylum limbo

… critics will argue that Britain is picking and choosing which Hongkongers count, undermining its narrative as a defender of freedom in the city.

8. Possible future scenarios – what could change?

Because the earned settlement model is still under consultation, there is still room for changes.

Realistic scenarios include:

8.1 Exemptions for certain refugee groups

Parliament and the consultation documents already hint at possible 5-year exceptions for some groups (e.g. victims of domestic abuse, children who grew up in the UK).

It is conceivable that:

• Hong Kong refugees linked to the pro-democracy movement could be argued into a shorter settlement period, given the UK–Hong Kong history and clear political nature of their persecution.

8.2 Transitional protections

A key open question in Parliament:

• Will the new rules apply only to new arrivals, or also to people already here, like Nathan Law?

We could see:

• A grandfathering approach: anyone already in the UK under existing rules keeps a 5-year or 10-year plan.
• Or a harder line: the new 20-year standard applied across the board, with limited exceptions.

8.3 Stronger “refugee work & study” pathways

The government promises a new work and study route for refugees, which – if designed well – could allow many Hong Kong refugees to:

• Move off pure asylum
• Count more of their time towards a 10-year rather than 20-year settlement
• Demonstrate exactly the contribution that the earned settlement model wants to reward

The details of that route will matter hugely.

9. Practical planning tips for Hong Kong refugees and supporters

None of this is legal advice – but as an informational guide, here’s how Hongkongers in the UK can think strategically.

9.1 If you are BN(O)-eligible (or a BN(O) family member)

• Use the BN(O) route if you can – it remains one of the most generous routes in the system (5-year ILR).
• Keep records of:
  • Continuous residence
  • Work and income (to meet future earnings thresholds)
  • English proficiency and Life in the UK preparation
• Engage with:
  • Local communities, councils, schools, civic life – integration strengthens your case and your life quality.

9.2 If you are a Hong Kong refugee without BN(O) status

1. Track the consultation and parliamentary debates
   • Watch how MPs and peers are discussing Hong Kong in the context of asylum and settlement.
2. Talk to specialist lawyers early
   • Refugee law + new earned settlement rules will be complex and evolving. You’ll want tailored advice.
3. Consider pathways into work/study routes where safe and possible
   • The future refugee work/study route, or existing Skilled Worker/Global Talent options, may shorten your settlement path.
4. Document your risk and persecution clearly
   • Keep evidence (where safe) of:
     • Arrest warrants, court documents
     • Threats, online targeting, media articles about your case
     • Involvement in movements or organisations
5. Look after your mental health and community support
   • Long uncertainty is emotionally brutal. Connect with:
     • Hong Kong diaspora groups
     • Faith communities
     • Refugee support NGOs in the UK

9.3 For UK advocates, charities and lawyers

• Use data showing Hongkongers’ economic and social contributions (like the CSRI’s £4bn estimate) when arguing for shorter settlement routes.
• Highlight the two-tier problem to committees and consultations: same persecution, radically different settlement timetables.
• Propose clear exemptions in written evidence to Parliament and the Home Office for:
  • Hong Kong democracy activists
  • Those with National Security Law-related charges
  • Those already in the UK before reforms were announced

10. Final thought: What does a “moral obligation” look like in policy?

Nathan Law is not arguing that the UK owes Hongkongers endless, unconditioned open borders. His point is more specific:

Because of Britain’s historical role in Hong Kong and its explicit promises, there is a moral responsibility to ensure all Hongkongers fleeing political persecution – not just those lucky enough to hold BN(O) status – have a realistic, humane route to safety and security.

The government’s new immigration model is built on words like:

• Control
• Selectivity
• Contribution

The challenge now is whether those principles can coexist with:

• A serious, consistent commitment to refugee protection
• Honourable treatment of people whose democratic struggle is so closely tied to the UK’s own history in Hong Kong.

For BN(O) families, the promise is largely intact.

For non-BN(O) Hong Kong refugees, the next 12–24 months – consultation responses, draft laws, and parliamentary votes – will decide whether their road to safety is:

• A 5–10 year earned journey, or
• A 20-year limbo that looks, to them, very much like a broken promise.

FAQ Section

1. Will the UK’s new 10-year ILR plan apply to Hongkongers?

BN(O) visa holders are expected to keep their 5-year ILR pathway, but non-BN(O) Hongkongers using the asylum route may face a much longer wait, potentially up to 20 years under the proposed model.

2. Why is Nathan Law worried about the new UK immigration rules?

Law warns that Hongkongers without BN(O) status—often young activists—may be pushed into long-term limbo, even though they face the same political persecution under the National Security Law.

3. Will Hong Kong refugees be sent back under the new rules?

No. The UK government says anyone at risk of persecution will not be returned. But the concern is about the length and uncertainty of their path to permanent settlement.

4. Are BN(O) families affected by the 10-year ILR proposal?

No. The government has signaled that BN(O) families will remain on the 5-year ILR track, separate from the new “earned settlement” model.

5. Why is the UK tightening settlement rules now?

The government aims to make immigration more selective, controlled, and contribution-based, reducing long-term migration while prioritising high-skilled and high-income applicants.